As a result of the receipt of special financial assistance, the AFM-EPF will no longer be in critical and declining status. (
However, the Plan is still considered to be in critical status. See FAQ 14.)
The special financial assistance is intended to provide our Plan with the additional funding we need so that we are projected to be able to pay benefits and administrative expenses through 2051. This calculation was made using some assumptions required by ARPA.
Now that the Plan has the special financial assistance, in order to project the financial health of the Plan decades into the future, the Plan’s actuaries use a number of assumptions (based on what they think are reasonable expectations for our Plan, rather than what was mandated by ARPA) to assess:
- How much income the Plan will have each year in the future – this is based on current provisions in each of the thousands of collective bargaining agreements/contracts under the Plan, assumptions about the future levels of work that will generate contributions to the Plan, and future investment returns.
- How much the Plan will pay out each year in the future – this is based on the benefits that have already been earned and assumptions about future benefits earned at the current $1 multiplier, how long these benefits will be paid out to each retiree and beneficiary based on the demographics of the group and assumptions about mortality, and forecasts of expenses such as Fund personnel, Fund professionals, and overhead rent for the Fund office.
Clearly, not all of the assumptions will be met. That’s why this rigorous assessment is required by law to be updated each year and reported to the PBGC under the special financial assistance compliance reporting requirements.
To the extent the Plan can outperform some of the assumptions that ARPA required us to use, it may remain solvent long beyond 2051. Right now, we are cautiously optimistic. Market conditions, investment returns, and future contributions to the Plan are a few of the many factors that will have an impact on the Plan’s financial health in the decades to come and cannot be predicted with certainty. As always, we will monitor our progress along the way and communicate that to you.